看起來英國正在贏得與猴痘的鬥爭
Naomi Grimley / 健康記者 / 10 月 2 日 / BBC 新聞
圖片來源，路透社
英國領先的傳染病建模師之一說，隨著病例持續下降，英國的猴痘情況看起來「非常積極」。
尼爾·弗格森教授認為，疫苗和警惕性有助於將病例數從今年 7 月的峰值往下降。
恐慌始於 5 月，當時英國發現這種疾病的病例傳統上僅限於非洲部分地區。
英國記錄了超過 3,500 例病例，但最近幾週新增感染病例不到 100 例。
• 什麼是猴痘，您是如何感染它的？
弗格森教授站在英國應對新冠病毒疫情的最前沿，目前正在就猴痘問題向政府提供建議，他告訴 BBC，專家們仍在爭論為什麼病例在仲夏開始下降。
「我們不完全確定確切原因。疫苗接種開始推出，因此可能產生了一些影響——但這並不能解釋一切」，他說。
「最有可能的假設是，受影響最嚴重的社區，即男男性行為者的行為發生了相當大的變化」。
有人擔心猴痘可能會成為地方病，這意味著它會在英國和在今年之前不常看到病例的其他國家中出現。
但倫敦帝國理工學院的弗格森教授表示，歐洲和北美的病例一直在逐漸下降。他建議，如果它確實持續存在，它「可能會持續在零星的低水平」。
許多其他國家最近也爆發了疫情，很明顯存在人與人之間的傳播，絕大多數病例發生在男男性行為者身上。
自 5 月以來，全球報告了 65,000 多例病例，世界衛生組織在 7 月將其稱為全球公共衛生緊急事件。
弗格森教授說，雖然數據並不明確，但看起來行為改變會對這些數字產生影響。這可能是因為人們一旦發現症狀或檢查他們的伴侶是否有不尋常的斑點或病變就開始進行隔離。
他說，一些男同性戀和雙性戀男性也可能減少了性伴侶的數量。但他警告說，對病毒沾沾自喜的危險，他說：「我們必須警惕這樣一種可能性，即一旦病例數量大大減少，也許人們不那麼警惕，那麼我們可能會開始看到死灰復燃」。
他說，確保病例保持在低水平的最佳方法是繼續為有風險的人接種疫苗，並保持監測。
性健康診所一直承受著巨大的壓力，由於需求量大，全球疫苗供應一直不穩定。然而，英國衛生安全局最近表示，它現在準備開始向那些被認為是高風險的人推出第二劑猴痘疫苗。
還沒有完全走出困境
Josh Parry，LGBT 和身份認同製作者
猴痘病例急劇下降的消息對於那些擔心其風險的人來說將是一個可喜的解脫——但我們還沒有完全擺脫困境。
正如尼爾·弗格森教授所說，目前的假設是，除了疫苗的大量使用外，人們的行為也發生了變化，這也可能有助於解釋病例數的下降。
由於該病毒的流行率相對低於疫情高峰期，而且它在我們的談話中占主導地位的比例也較低，因此與我交談過的性健康工作者擔心對症狀的警惕性也可能會下滑。
既然第二次疫苗正在推出，他們的主要信息是——如果你得到了一劑，請確保接受它。
如果您可能處於危險之中但根本沒有接種任何疫苗；那就應利用新進口即將供應的針劑，因為即使是一劑也能提供高水平的保護。
最重要的是 – 如果您有症狀，請待在家裡，打電話給當地的性健康診所，避免共用毛巾或床上用品，直到您被告知該怎麼做。
UK looks to be winning the fight against monkeypox
By Naomi Grimley / Health Correspondent / 2 October / BBC News IMAGE SOURCE,REUTERS
The UK’s monkeypox situation is looking “very positive” with cases continuing to fall, says one of Britain’s leading infectious disease modellers.
Prof Neil Ferguson believes vaccines and vigilance have helped drive cases down from a peak in July this year.
The scare started in May when the UK saw cases of the disease traditionally confined to parts of Africa.
The UK has recorded more than 3,500 cases, but in recent weeks there have been fewer than 100 new infections.
•What is monkeypox and how do you catch it?
Prof Ferguson, who was at the forefront of the UK’s Covid response and is currently advising the government on monkeypox, told the BBC that experts are still debating why cases started declining in midsummer.
“We’re not completely sure of exactly why. Vaccination started to be rolled out so that probably had some effect – but it doesn’t explain it all,” he said.
“The most likely hypothesis is that there was quite a big change in behaviour in the most affected community, namely men who have sex with men.”
There had been worries that monkeypox might become endemic, meaning it would be ever-present in the UK and other countries which were not used to seeing cases before this year.
But Prof Ferguson, who is based at Imperial College London, says that cases in Europe and North America have been following a gradual downward trajectory. He suggests that if it does persist, it will “probably persist at sporadic low levels”.
Many other countries have also seen recent outbreaks and it became apparent there had been human-to-human transmission, with the vast majority of cases in men who had sex with men.
Since May there have been more than 65,000 cases reported worldwide and the World Health Organisation called it a global public health emergency in July.
Prof Ferguson says that although the data is not clear-cut, it looks as if behaviour change will have made a difference to those numbers. This might be because people started isolating once they recognised symptoms or checked their partners for unusual spots or lesions.
He says some gay and bisexual men may also have reduced their number of sexual partners. But he warned of the dangers of becoming complacent about the virus, saying: “We have to be alert to the possibility that once case numbers are much lower and maybe people are less vigilant, then we could start to see a resurgence.”
He says the best way to ensure that cases stay low is to continue to vaccinate those at risk, and maintain surveillance.
Sexual health clinics have been under severe pressure and vaccine supplies worldwide have been erratic due to high demand. However, the UK Health Security Agency has recently said it is now ready to start rolling out second doses of the monkeypox vaccine to those considered high-risk.
Not completely out of the woods yet
By Josh Parry, LGBT & Identity Producer
News that monkeypox cases have fallen dramatically will be a welcome relief to those worried about their risk – but we’re not completely out of the woods yet.
As Prof Neil Ferguson says, the current hypothesis is that as well as a huge uptake in vaccines there’s been a shift in people’s behaviour which could also help explain the fall in cases.
Because prevalence of the virus is comparatively lower to the peak of the outbreak, and it’s dominating less of our conversations, sexual health workers I’ve spoken to are concerned that vigilance around symptoms might also slip.
The take-home message from them now that second vaccines are being rolled out is – if you’re offered one, make sure to take it.
And if you might be at risk but haven’t received any vaccination at all; then make use of new supplies of the jab coming on board, as even one dose offers a high level of protection.
And most importantly – if you have symptoms, stay at home, call your local sexual health clinic and avoid sharing towels or bedding until you’ve been told what to do.